Thursday’s NBA playoff slate features another trio of contests and we’re here to break down how bettors are approaching each game.
All the information about to be presented is drawn from the Action Network PRO Report, which provides betting percentages and five “signals” — sharp money, big money, PRO systems, model edge and expert picks — that help distinguish certain plays.
Although no side or total currently triggers a majority of those signals, a few markets trigger two. So, without further delay, here are the betting percentages and signals for each game.
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Game #1 – Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5, 236) at Minnesota Timberwolves (Series Tied 1-1)
The Grizzlies picked up Game 2 to even the series, but each side is triggering signals for Game 3.
Sharp bettors are gravitating to the host Timberwolves, which opened as one-and-a-half-point favorites and have held steady at that number. However, two of the remaining four signals are going in favor of the Grizzlies.
The first such signal for the Grizzlies is the PRO system signal. Because the Grizzlies have seen 72 percent of all bets and 82 percent of the money, it triggers the “Playoffs: More Money on Favorites” system. That system, which targets playoff favorites with a positive difference between money and bet percentages, has a 62 percent historical win rate and 21 percent return on investment.
Additionally, a top NBA expert from the Action Network is supporting the Grizzlies, giving it two signals at this writing.
As for the total, there’s been little meaningful action to this point. We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under, which opened at 238.5 points and now sits at either 236.5 or 237 depending on where you shop. Overall, that under has seen 72 percent of all bets and 88 percent of the money.
At the time of writing, the Grizzlies are 1.5-point favorites on the road at Caesars Sportsbook.
Game #2 – Golden State Warriors (-1.5, 224.5) at Denver Nuggets (GSW leads series 2-0)
The Warriors claimed both games in San Francisco but, much like the previous game, signals are going toward both teams in Denver.
We’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the Nuggets as it seeks to get within striking distance Thursday, but two of the remaining four signals go in favor of the Warriors. The same PRO system that triggers the Grizzlies — the “Playoffs: More Money on Favorites” system — triggers the Warriors, which has received 89 percent of all bets and 96 percent of the total handle, both highs among the six sides available Thursday.
Additionally, not one, not two but three NBA experts from the Action Network are backing the Warriors (-1.5) Thursday in Denver to give the visitors two signals in its favor.
In terms of the total, which opened at 224.5, we’ve seen early sharp action coming in on the under. Additionally, big-money backers are trending toward the under as well. At this writing, under 224.5 points has received only 19 percent of all total bets, but 72 percent of the total handle. That qualifies as the biggest percentage discrepancy on Thursday.
BetMGM Sportsbook has the best odds for the Warriors Thursday night, setting them as 1.5-point favorites on Thursday.
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Game #3 – Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz (-7, 210.5) (Series Tied 1-1)
Each side picked up a win in Dallas and bettors are split in terms of the first game in Utah.
We’ve tracked sharp money coming in on the host Jazz, which opened as a consensus eight-point favorite in Game Three but has seen its spread fall slightly. That said, big money has gone in favor of the Mavericks (+7). At this writing, the visiting Mavericks have seen 66 percent of all spread bets against 87 percent of the total spread handle.
As for the total, there’s little meaningful action to report. The public is all over the lowest total on the board (210.5, up slightly from an opening number of 209 points), but we’ve tracked sharp action coming in on the under. Overall, the over has received 90 percent of all bets this far.
WynnBet Sportsbook has the over at 210.5 and the Jazz as 6.5 point favorites on Thursday.
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